Unders owned the day last week. I find it very interesting how these totals are playing out and how it correlates to offenses reacting to shell defenses with more twelve personnel. Steelers, Browns, Bears, Packers, and Rams all played twelve a lot more than they did last year. There were 11 teams that played it more than 30% (up from only 7 last year). The lowest rates of twelve in week 1? Dolphins, Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Panthers, Broncos. Yikes.
Running late this week so a couple quick points on each.
Jaguars vs. Bengals
This one is intriguing. I think the general betting public just assumes the Bengals will bounce back, but I saw real problems here. Along the offensive line, their lack of run defense. They looked like they were pressing.
The Jags looked like a totally different run game that matches up pretty well here, and I think the more time this offense and run game gets going, the more Lawrence and the oline will settle in. Last week I talked about the Jags being one of the biggest jumps in coaching and we already saw that. I think they build on this, and Cinci isn’t an overly difficult place to play. On defense they’re used to playing dime packages that I think will once again frustrate these receivers. How patient will the Bengals be – will they use twelve at a higher rate like last week? Will they run Chase more? Those answers should be ‘yes’ in a vacuum, but you know these receivers and Burrow will get impatient and try to force some things. And it’ll get worse if their defense can’t get off the field on Jags long drives.
Jags were top 10 last week in EPA per play. This is a good spot to keep the momentum going.
3* - Jags +3.5
1* - Jags +160
Titans vs. Rams
This split for Cam Ward can’t get anymore dramatic. On the road in Denver against #1 ranked defense with virtually no run game versus at home against a pretty good defense that isn’t that great against the run. They should be able to get going. The Rams OL injuries cannot be overstated here – Titans should wreck the middle just like they did last week. Their defense is underrated and finished 6 in EPA per play last week against a lot of folks’ darling in the Broncos.
I’m looking forward to Cam getting more comfortable and back on track.
3* - Titans +5.5
1* - Titans ML +205
Bears vs. Lions
Many of my Bears thoughts are in MNF write-up, but they should have won that game despite some dreadful performances and anomalies.
Lions looked like they were transitioning two really good coordinators and the offensive line didn’t look good which impacted the whole game last week. Lost in Caleb’s few misfires was a Bears defense that was top 5 in EPA per play.
Lions offense, especially run game, struggled and the defense looked worse. Bears run game woes are fixable, IMO. Lions, I’m not so sure even though they clearly have more talent.
In a divisional game where both teams looked sloppy and are desperate for a win, I’ll take the student over the teacher in this great coaching matchup.
1* - Bears +6.5
.5* - Bears +240
Bills vs. Jets
Bills looked awful against the run and the offense didn’t look that smooth either until late. Everyone on the ‘Josh Allen destroys man’ train didn’t realize that the Jets only played man about half the time last week. They played a decent amount of Cover 3 and Cover 2 Zones and will give enough versatility to contain Allen I think. Allen likes to throw downfield whereas Rodgers had success with quick game last week.
Jets should expose the Bills in the run game and keep this close. They have to have a very bad taste in their mouth, and I think they could win this outright. The Bills got away with one in a game where they obviously should have lost at home. A lot of value in this line.
1* - Jets +5.5
.5* - Jets +222
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Cardinals are still a play on team for me. I think the offense is looking good, especially if they lean on Benson and McBride more. Panthers have little answer for that and couldn’t stop the run last week. Panthers oline allowed the second quickest pressure rate.
Too many playmakers at home and an underrated defense.
1* - Cardinals -7
Those are my main plays. Leans on Dolphins, Saints, Steelers, Cowboys, Browns, Colts and Chiefs. Might play one or more of those if I can get some value.
