Week 1 NFL

Posted Record:

NFL Sides: 2-0 +6.00

NFL MLs: 0-1 -2.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 5-5 -4.40

Titans/Broncos

I can remember when 8.5 NFL favorites were reserved for elite teams. I get the success last year is getting a lot of Denver fans fired up, but I just don’t see them as an elite team at all. And I’m really high on the Titans (against the spread at least) for a number of reasons. 

Titans were the 29th ranked in ‘luck’ – a combined metric for all luck factors like fumbles, kicking, injuries, etc. The Titans recorded a Turnover Differential of -16 in 2024, which is a significant anomaly. Denver was only middle of the road and had a great turnover worthy play vs. INT differential. Nix was surprisingly not putting the ball in harm’s way. But the Broncos were 6th in Injury Luck – people continue to underestimate how big of a factor injury luck is. 

I’m high on Ward, but his bar for improvement jumps is very low. QB play was atrocious on the Titans side. They were just chucking it up and hoping for something good. Bad on 3rd down, horrible on fourth down. I see not only huge jumps from the QB but obvious jumps in the offensive line. A lot of investment there. I don’t think skill players were necessarily the problem. I’m no offensive line expert, but hearing a lot that are saying that this could be a top 10 unit. That is a huge jump – they were 31st last year via PFF. Titans running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51% of carries….that’s absurd. 

The Broncos defense was already a highly effective unit in 2024, ranking 1st in EPA per play against designed runs and 1st in success rate against designed runs. Their overall defensive DVOA was 6th in the league. While they could maintain this high level, it's generally difficult to significantly improve upon such elite performance, making substantial further positive regression less likely in these areas.This will be a key to watch—I don’t see it as sustainable with their coaching and talent, but many will disagree. Their success had a ton to do with Nix’s success too in my opinion. An obvious tendency was their blitzing on third down, and Cam Ward’s college tape (now, obviously college vs. NFL is different) showed a QB that was really good against the blitz. I think if Joseph’s philosophy is ‘blitz the kid’, it could backfire since the offensive line will hold up better and the Titans have a QB who welcomes the blitz. 

One interesting tidbit—as great as that defense was last year, they had the fourth worst deep coverage rate, and Hufanga isn’t coming to save them there in my opinion. I like the Titans getting some explosive passing plays in this game. 

I don’t see it long-term with Nix. They’re working on speeding up his time to throw which was over 3 seconds last year. I see a sophomore slump coming for Nix. I like what they did at RB and should be better there, but wide receivers aren’t the greatest, or at least aren’t proven outside of Sutton. I just think there were a lot of things going right around Nix – defense, offensive line, injury luck, not a ton of tape on him. He seems like a QB poised for a lot of regression to me if those things around him start to breakdown. 

Easy play for me…

3* - Titans +8.5

1* - Titans ML +345

Panthers/Jaguars

Panthers/Jaguars – get hyped! Ha. This game is probably going to be pretty bad, but it has some value.

Carolina Panthers: 9th highest luck in the league. The offensive line will be impacted by their starting LT being out. Bryce was great in the second half of the year – will that continue, especially with this receiver group and putting a lot on McMillan’s plate by trading Theilen. Their total DVOA was 30 last year, so had some positive signs down the stretch and should have a good defensive line but let’s pump the brakes here. The defense was really bad, especially the back 7. I don’t think you fix those problems with the additions you’ve made. 

Jaguars could see one of the biggest jumps in coaching and I think that’ll make a huge difference. For efficiency and for Lawrence. And for the running game. I have a lot of respect for Coen and think he’ll turn this offense around immediately. Jags had a high turnover differential and a high SOS last year, so that will regress and SOS attributed to some of the numbers.

Travis Hunter will obviously be an X factor. I don’t think Carolina has any sort of answer for him. 

• Offensive Line Strength: The Jaguars brought in Robbie Hany and Patrick McCari, and drafted Wyatt Milm, indicating an effort to solidify their offensive line. This unit's performance against Carolina's retooled defensive line will be fun to watch. Could be too early to trust the retooled offensive line, but I think they did a lot to upgrade. Walker Little also played really well down the stretch last year. I love betting on forecasted offensive line improvement (just like the Titans) and I think we see that here as well. 

Another easy one for me

1* - Jaguars -4

RAiders/Patriots

So the Raiders have a ton of things going for them and they will be a team I look to play early quite a bit. No team made more combined improvement in the two most important spots: Quarterback and Head Coach. QB play was dreadful last season and the head coach was one of the worst in the history of the league. You raise the floor immensely – people don’t realize that in 2024 Smith was graded 2nd best in inaccurate number of throws. He continues to be dismissed and it’s kind of mind-boggling. Say what you will about Carroll but compared to the last coach this is a huge river of improvement. 

This contributed to a -16 turnover differential which almost always regresses when this high. Again, this type of regression correlates to 2.5 to 3 wins the following year. They also had a historically bad fumble recovery rate at 24.2%...less than half of what’s typical

Running game was 2nd to last in EPA/play so they brought in one of the best running minds in football and the best running back in the draft. 

They had the second worst injury luck of any team in the NFL. 

They have the 11th best improvement forecasted in SOS difference from prior year. It’s crazy. 

Every anomaly that usually regresses, the Raiders had in a negative way on top of having awful coaching and QB play. 

They had a very good run stopping defense (although probably because they were so bad at stopping the pass), but I see improvement on many position groups. Wide receiver talent in the draft was good. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they copy some of the Ravens stuff here. The Ravens were able to force light boxes because they ran 12 personnel with Andrews and Likely, who can both block and run routes really well. The Raiders are one of the few teams in the league that can replicate that, and it’s a copy cat league. I think Chip Kelly is chomping at the bit with this offense. 

On special teams, McMahon was one of the proponents of the new rules. They were 5th in return yardage and 1st in opponent return yardage so probably the most poised to exploit that on special teams. 

Patriots also had some back luck in general. And improved their offensive line. They’re everyone’s darling to improve their win total. Have they done enough on the defensive side of the ball? Vrabel should lift the floor but he actually rarely has top 10 defenses (that seems weird, but it’s true). I don’t see how they stop the Raiders and then they’re turning to Maye who I just fail to get the hype around — don’t see how this guy is going to co-exist with Vrabel. 

Another easy one for me:

1* - Raiders +2.5 +100

Falcons/Bucs

The Falcons are an interesting team. It’s risky to trust Penix, but I do. 

Their offense was 12th ranked in EPA/Play and 5th in success rate, and that’s including some real Cousins duds. 

One area of regressions is 3rd down efficiency defensively – that was 31st and there’s no reason why that won’t regress positively. 

Bucs cannot defend the middle of the field, ranking 31st in EPA/play between the numbers. The defense also ranked 30th in deep passes allowed with a low coverage rate. They haven’t done enough to address this, although they did invest there in the draft and should get some better health from some guys. It should improve, but not enough and this is a great team to take advantage of that. Falcons had over 11 yards per attempt in the middle of the field against the Bucs last year and completed 82% of their passes there. 

Offensively, a new coordinator and Tristan’s injury will both be huge in my opinion. Not to mention Godwin (although his production and route running could be replaced by Egbuka) and McMillan who Baker has a lot of comfort with, will be out. Hec replacing Tristan is one of the biggest discrepancies you can have – he had a 47.8 pass blocking grade via PFF. Jaylen Walker and James Pierce Jr. should improve the Falcons pass rush and help give this line fits. Bucs lack film with this personnel on Ulbrich, who I have a lot of respect for as a defensive mind. And they can run the ball with the lead and force Bucs into obvious pass situations. 

I think Baker could really have a down season compared to last year, particularly early, with these injuries and scheme adjustments. 

In essence, this Week 1 game pits a Falcons team potentially susceptible to more injuries this year but with room to improve defensively, against a Buccaneers team looking to rebound from significant pass coverage issues. The outcome may hinge on how effectively Michael Pennix can exploit the Buccaneers' past coverage weaknesses, the performance of the revamped offensive lines for both teams, and the ability of the Falcons' improved pass rush to pressure Baker Mayfield. Given the historical "weirdness" of their matchups and the early-season unknowns from coaching and injury impacts, expect a tightly contested battle.

This one is not as easy as the other three for me, but good enough to bet. 

1* Falcons pk

Browns/Bengals

I’m writing some general thoughts here, as I’m a Browns fan and spend the majority of my free time reading about them. I’m not betting this game – I think the line is right on the money. 

I do think the Browns offense has a higher floor. One thing that really doesn’t get talked about enough is how bad Dorsey is as an OC and seemingly as a leader. That scheme was dreadful to watch. Decent QB play and a big jump in scheme and playcalling back to what some of these veterans are used to should make a difference. 

Also, the Browns drafted 4 guys in the top 20 PFF graded in college and six in the top 54. I feel like if the Giants or Cowboys did this we’d hear it on every show 50 times. That’s pretty incredible. And their 7th guy they drafted will probably have the most impact in Schwesinger. 

BUT. Although past success in the scheme with the Browns and more time to prepare will be good for Flacco, he has been night and day as a QB when kept clean and not being kept clean. And that is starting off the year in the wrong direction in my opinion. 

Dawand Jones flashed at right tackle. I don’t think he’s the answer at long-term left tackle. I hope I’m wrong. The guards are old and clearly declining. Conklin has perhaps showed the most signs of declining. Many outlets have this as a bottom 10 unit. I don’t know if it’s that extreme, but Hendrickson should have a good day. Jerome Ford is dreadful in pass blocking as well, which will not help. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sampson immediately involved more than Ford. 

I do like the wide receiver room. Jeudy and Tillman should be solid on the outside and Thrash and Farrin/Njoku will be used split out inside. Weapons can execute this offense, and the QB — if he can be kept clean – has proven he can make throws out of it. 

This idea of the Bengals holding the Browns to 10 points is crazy. 

On the other side, defensive line is a top 3 unit, LBs have a lot of questions but Schwesinger looks like the real deal, and 2 of the 4 in the secondary are very good, 2 of the 4 are decent, and the rest is really bad. If they can get Chase or Higgins in the slot and in man against any option the Browns have in nickel, it’s going to be a long day for the Browns. I will be interested in how the Browns hide this. They’ll have to get home on the QB or Chase might have 200 yards today. 

Too much variance and a spot-on line, but I’d lean the Bengals and the Over here. 

I’ll be back with a Monday play, which will be the Bears in some form. I’ll try to avoid a play on the Sunday night game, but I’ll probably have a little pizza money on the Ravens – they’re about as perfectly constructed as a team as you can get in my opinion, and the Bills have several areas of regression that Josh Allen will probably just make-up for like he makes up for everything. Have a great one!