Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks

Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks: Week 1 TNF

This is a risk, but a risk worth taking.

Key Injuries include Trevon Diggs and Tyler Guyton on the Cowboys side although they were full participants and I’m expecting them to play, as well as DT depth Perrion Winfrey who did not participate. The latter is a tough blow at this stage, but less important with the Clark pick-up. For the Eagles, Landon Dickerson did not participate Monday because of a back injury, but Dickerson and Jalen Carter and Mukuba were full participants today. Of note, AJ Brown had a hamstring, but no longer shows up on the injury report. So we’re expecting the rosters to be relatively healthy on both sides. 

Weather: 74 degrees, light win, and a possibility of light showers. Forecast has gotten favorable for the game where it was calling for a higher chance of heavy rain a few days ago

As I pointed out in my NFC East preview, the Cowboys have a lot of value in my opinion to bet on early and win the division.They’ll have value particularly in the beginning of the season. 

Micah and Dak missed some games last year. Obviously Micah is a big loss (huge defensive spread in EPA/play with and without him). Dak’s backups were pretty awful last year. 

Bill Barnwell points out the Cowboys’ red zone differential discrepancy which was very wide – 4th worst differential in 25 years. He says the worst 30 differentials evened out the following year and they improved by 3 wins! Now, some is talent and scheme, but I definitely expect that to follow suit and even out. 

Pickens is a good add as plugging him in really puts pressure on defenses without a lot of CB depth—which one could argue the Eagles are one of those teams. Two guys who can beat man coverage and Pickens being a complement to one of the best receivers in the NFL. And it helps Turpin play an increased role in the offense. Interior offensive line is a strength, tackles are very much dependent on improvement at the position. Running back got quite a bit better with 3 guys in Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue that you could argue are all better than what they had last year. 

I also think Kenny Clark is a sneaky good add. His best time might be behind him, but adds leadership and some run defense that the team desperately needs: scores high in stop rate and fits well in Eberflus’ scheme (think Buckner in the Colts days). Obviously doesn’t make up for losing Parsons, but it shouldn’t be dismissed like most analysts seem to be doing. He also has no guaranteed money coming in 2026 or 2027, so while it’s not a contract year, it’s a contract leverage year. This defensive tackle group is strong overall. The Cowboys have a lot of uncertainty at Edge, but also a lot of upside in my opinion, with guys that can get better with different coaching and coming back from injury. Defensive tackles are now a strength and some question marks in the middle of the Eagles offensive line. Linebackers are going to impress in my opinion. I like Sanborn and Murray in this scheme. Clark and Liufau should split time at the other spot and Eberflus makes Linebackers better. So the front 7 is solid and will undoubtedly make big jumps in stopping the run. The secondary has some question marks for sure, but with Diggs returning and better interior pass rush, they could easily make a jump. 

Eagles: elite production all around as you’d expect a returning Super Bowl champion to have, ranked high in EPA/play on both sides of the ball, but middle of the road in success % offensively. Insanely efficient run game and best offensive line in the league. 

Jalen Hurts turnover worthy play to interception ratio was the third highest in the league, meaning he was the third ‘luckiest’ QB in terms of turnovers. They had turnover luck in general at the 2nd best turnover differential. 

Eagles have a really high injury luck as well – 2nd in adjusted games lost in 2024. This will likely regress, especially when you have key players with injury history like AJ Brown with his knee, Hurts’ concussion history, Barkley with huge usage in 2024 and several other key players with longevity flags. 

They also had one of the NFL’s easiest schedules versus the 4th most difficult this year. They were 8-2 in one score games

Third down D was very good, 3rd overall, which usually regresses as well as allowing the fewest big plays. Overall, their luck metric was high at 4th overall. 

The Eagles’ record-breaking health, favorable schedule, and high turnover-performing edge fueled their championship run—but these are classic indicators of potential regression. With 2025 bringing tougher opponents, question marks around key players’ durability, and Hurts’s known volatility, we should expect less margin for error and more risk of negative regression. I’m not saying this won’t be a good football team or they’ll regress to a non-playoff team, but there are a lot of things that went their way last year. 

The new Dallas coordinators also present another challenge for week 1 film study. It’s always tough to project what these guys will change and you just don’t have the right tape on them. Advantage Cowboys, and I think an underrated advantage. You saw that play out in Texas/Ohio State where Texas looked clueless on Patricia’s changes. 

Don’t underestimate special teams and how the changes to kickoff rules can highlight Aubrey and Turpin to change field position. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a big play out of special teams as well. 

Betting favorites I think is risky this year due to inflated lines, particularly with elite teams. NFL favorites won outright 72% of the time through week 17 last year, 2nd highest ever. And that was after a decent early September for dogs. Favorites covered at a 53.9% clip which was 7th best ever and the best in 8 years. I think we’re seeing (surprisingly) pretty lopsided action on the Eagles so far. Not a ton of holes on the roster, but a big opportunity for these advanced metrics to negatively regress. They should be able to get a couple of throws over the top on the Cowboys, but I do think they’ll have less 1st and 2nd down efficiency than this line suggest. 

This game is a big play for me:

5 units: Cowboys +8. Just think this is a strong value play in a lot of areas. I can tell why the line is where it is and why I think it is lacking, which is usually my best type of play. 

2 units: Cowboys ML +328. If the Cowboys are going to steal one from Philly, this might be the better shot to do so even on the road with new coordinators without a lot of tape on schemes with this roster, early year regression scenarios, and improved health and talent from the Cowboys not built into the line yet. 

.25 unit: Turpin Anytime TD +650. Kick return, jet sweep, swing pass, or regular route…lots of ways to get this one and I don’t think the Eagles have a good answer with a lot of attention being on Pickens and Lamb.