home-underdawgs

NFL Week 2

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 15:45:15 GMT

NFL Week 2 Picks

Unders owned the day last week. I find it very interesting how these totals are playing out and how it correlates to offenses reacting to shell defenses with more twelve personnel. Steelers, Browns, Bears, Packers, and Rams all played twelve a lot more than they did last year. There were 11 teams that played it more than 30% (up from only 7 last year). The lowest rates of twelve in week 1? Dolphins, Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Panthers, Broncos. Yikes.

Running late this week so a couple quick points on each.

Jaguars vs. Bengals

This one is intriguing. I think the general betting public just assumes the Bengals will bounce back, but I saw real problems here. Along the offensive line, their lack of run defense. They looked like they were pressing.

The Jags looked like a totally different run game that matches up pretty well here, and I think the more time this offense and run game gets going, the more Lawrence and the oline will settle in. Last week I talked about the Jags being one of the biggest jumps in coaching and we already saw that. I think they build on this, and Cinci isn’t an overly difficult place to play. On defense they’re used to playing dime packages that I think will once again frustrate these receivers. How patient will the Bengals be – will they use twelve at a higher rate like last week? Will they run Chase more? Those answers should be ‘yes’ in a vacuum, but you know these receivers and Burrow will get impatient and try to force some things. And it’ll get worse if their defense can’t get off the field on Jags long drives.

Jags were top 10 last week in EPA per play. This is a good spot to keep the momentum going.

3* - Jags +3.5

1* - Jags +160

Titans vs. Rams

This split for Cam Ward can’t get anymore dramatic. On the road in Denver against #1 ranked defense with virtually no run game versus at home against a pretty good defense that isn’t that great against the run. They should be able to get going. The Rams OL injuries cannot be overstated here – Titans should wreck the middle just like they did last week. Their defense is underrated and finished 6 in EPA per play last week against a lot of folks’ darling in the Broncos.

I’m looking forward to Cam getting more comfortable and back on track.

3* - Titans +5.5

1* - Titans ML +205

Bears vs. Lions

Many of my Bears thoughts are in MNF write-up, but they should have won that game despite some dreadful performances and anomalies.

Lions looked like they were transitioning two really good coordinators and the offensive line didn’t look good which impacted the whole game last week. Lost in Caleb’s few misfires was a Bears defense that was top 5 in EPA per play.

Lions offense, especially run game, struggled and the defense looked worse. Bears run game woes are fixable, IMO. Lions, I’m not so sure even though they clearly have more talent.

In a divisional game where both teams looked sloppy and are desperate for a win, I’ll take the student over the teacher in this great coaching matchup.

1* - Bears +6.5

.5* - Bears +240

Bills vs. Jets

Bills looked awful against the run and the offense didn’t look that smooth either until late. Everyone on the ‘Josh Allen destroys man’ train didn’t realize that the Jets only played man about half the time last week. They played a decent amount of Cover 3 and Cover 2 Zones and will give enough versatility to contain Allen I think. Allen likes to throw downfield whereas Rodgers had success with quick game last week.

Jets should expose the Bills in the run game and keep this close. They have to have a very bad taste in their mouth, and I think they could win this outright. The Bills got away with one in a game where they obviously should have lost at home. A lot of value in this line.

1* - Jets +5.5

.5* - Jets +222

Panthers vs. Cardinals

Cardinals are still a play on team for me. I think the offense is looking good, especially if they lean on Benson and McBride more. Panthers have little answer for that and couldn’t stop the run last week. Panthers oline allowed the second quickest pressure rate.

Too many playmakers at home and an underrated defense.

1* - Cardinals -7

Those are my main plays. Leans on Dolphins, Saints, Steelers, Cowboys, Browns, Colts and Chiefs. Might play one or more of those if I can get some value.

Bears Vikings Write-up and Pick

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 23:11:19 GMT

Bears Vikings on MNF

Posted Record:

NFL Sides: 5-1 +9.9

NFL MLs: 0-2 -3.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 5-5 -4.40

The Bears are one of the teams I’m highest on. They get a huge coaching upgrade and a huge o-line upgrade. Also had a great draft.

Bears should be a little unpredictable with how they marry Ben Johnson’s schemes with this particular personnel. Ben Johnson on the offense and Dennis Allen on the defense is a top 5 unit. Caleb Williams just didn’t seem to be a good fit for the previous regime.

They did have good injury luck last year but overall luck, they’re 30th in the league. 3-7 in one score games. They played the league’s toughest schedule down the stretch. They actually did have a positive turnover margin due to some luck on defense, but they strengthened the unit in key areas.

Viking also had high injury luck (although not as high as the Bears), and 2nd in Team Rankings.com luck metric – 8-1 in one score games which almost always regresses. They led the league in turnovers and second in turnover rate. That usually regresses and they have third oldest roster in the league. Their QB is a first year guy coming off a major injury…why do people think he’s going to be great right away? For this game in particular, rookie QBs win 30% of the time and less than that if you’re a first round pick.

I see the Bears being able to stop the run with the front 7 talent and Allen. New QB plus 3 new interior line starters on the road in game 1. They’ll be better long-term, but this is game 1. And no Addison which folks are downplaying. Jaylen Johnson’s injury hurts, but I think they will be fine here.

On the other side not only do I think Caleb is bound for a big jump with coaching, but he didn’t play bad at all against the Vikings. He had 2.42 time to throw and was great against the blitz. Ben Johnson has had a lot of success against Flores as well. And the Bears have the biggest jump in offensive line talent.

Give me the Bears here.

3* - Bears PK

NFL Week 1 Breakdown and Picks

Sun, 07 Sep 2025 15:00:53 GMT

Week 1 NFL

Posted Record:

NFL Sides: 2-0 +6.00

NFL MLs: 0-1 -2.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 5-5 -4.40

Titans/Broncos

I can remember when 8.5 NFL favorites were reserved for elite teams. I get the success last year is getting a lot of Denver fans fired up, but I just don’t see them as an elite team at all. And I’m really high on the Titans (against the spread at least) for a number of reasons.

Titans were the 29th ranked in ‘luck’ – a combined metric for all luck factors like fumbles, kicking, injuries, etc. The Titans recorded a Turnover Differential of -16 in 2024, which is a significant anomaly. Denver was only middle of the road and had a great turnover worthy play vs. INT differential. Nix was surprisingly not putting the ball in harm’s way. But the Broncos were 6th in Injury Luck – people continue to underestimate how big of a factor injury luck is.

I’m high on Ward, but his bar for improvement jumps is very low. QB play was atrocious on the Titans side. They were just chucking it up and hoping for something good. Bad on 3rd down, horrible on fourth down. I see not only huge jumps from the QB but obvious jumps in the offensive line. A lot of investment there. I don’t think skill players were necessarily the problem. I’m no offensive line expert, but hearing a lot that are saying that this could be a top 10 unit. That is a huge jump – they were 31st last year via PFF. Titans running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51% of carries….that’s absurd.

The Broncos defense was already a highly effective unit in 2024, ranking 1st in EPA per play against designed runs and 1st in success rate against designed runs . Their overall defensive DVOA was 6th in the league. While they could maintain this high level, it's generally difficult to significantly improve upon such elite performance, making substantial further positive regression less likely in these areas.This will be a key to watch—I don’t see it as sustainable with their coaching and talent, but many will disagree. Their success had a ton to do with Nix’s success too in my opinion. An obvious tendency was their blitzing on third down, and Cam Ward’s college tape (now, obviously college vs. NFL is different) showed a QB that was really good against the blitz. I think if Joseph’s philosophy is ‘blitz the kid’, it could backfire since the offensive line will hold up better and the Titans have a QB who welcomes the blitz.

One interesting tidbit—as great as that defense was last year, they had the fourth worst deep coverage rate, and Hufanga isn’t coming to save them there in my opinion. I like the Titans getting some explosive passing plays in this game.

I don’t see it long-term with Nix. They’re working on speeding up his time to throw which was over 3 seconds last year. I see a sophomore slump coming for Nix. I like what they did at RB and should be better there, but wide receivers aren’t the greatest, or at least aren’t proven outside of Sutton. I just think there were a lot of things going right around Nix – defense, offensive line, injury luck, not a ton of tape on him. He seems like a QB poised for a lot of regression to me if those things around him start to breakdown.

Easy play for me…

3* - Titans +8.5

1* - Titans ML +345

Pan thers/Jaguars

Panthers/Jaguars – get hyped! Ha. This game is probably going to be pretty bad, but it has some value.

Carolina Panthers: 9th highest luck in the league. The offensive line will be impacted by their starting LT being out. Bryce was great in the second half of the year – will that continue, especially with this receiver group and putting a lot on McMillan’s plate by trading Theilen. Their total DVOA was 30 last year, so had some positive signs down the stretch and should have a good defensive line but let’s pump the brakes here. The defense was really bad, especially the back 7. I don’t think you fix those problems with the additions you’ve made.

Jaguars could see one of the biggest jumps in coaching and I think that’ll make a huge difference. For efficiency and for Lawrence. And for the running game. I have a lot of respect for Coen and think he’ll turn this offense around immediately. Jags had a high turnover differential and a high SOS last year, so that will regress and SOS attributed to some of the numbers.

Travis Hunter will obviously be an X factor. I don’t think Carolina has any sort of answer for him.

• Offensive Line Strength: The Jaguars brought in Robbie Hany and Patrick McCari, and drafted Wyatt Milm, indicating an effort to solidify their offensive line. This unit's performance against Carolina's retooled defensive line will be fun to watch. Could be too early to trust the retooled offensive line, but I think they did a lot to upgrade. Walker Little also played really well down the stretch last year. I love betting on forecasted offensive line improvement (just like the Titans) and I think we see that here as well.

Another easy one for me

1* - Jaguars -4

RAiders/Patriots

So the Raiders have a ton of things going for them and they will be a team I look to play early quite a bit. No team made more combined improvement in the two most important spots: Quarterback and Head Coach. QB play was dreadful last season and the head coach was one of the worst in the history of the league. You raise the floor immensely – people don’t realize that in 2024 Smith was graded 2nd best in inaccurate number of throws. He continues to be dismissed and it’s kind of mind-boggling. Say what you will about Carroll but compared to the last coach this is a huge river of improvement.

This contributed to a -16 turnover differential which almost always regresses when this high. Again, this type of regression correlates to 2.5 to 3 wins the following year. They also had a historically bad fumble recovery rate at 24.2%...less than half of what’s typical

Running game was 2nd to last in EPA/play so they brought in one of the best running minds in football and the best running back in the draft.

They had the second worst injury luck of any team in the NFL.

They have the 11th best improvement forecasted in SOS difference from prior year. It’s crazy.

Every anomaly that usually regresses, the Raiders had in a negative way on top of having awful coaching and QB play.

They had a very good run stopping defense (although probably because they were so bad at stopping the pass), but I see improvement on many position groups. Wide receiver talent in the draft was good. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they copy some of the Ravens stuff here. The Ravens were able to force light boxes because they ran 12 personnel with Andrews and Likely, who can both block and run routes really well. The Raiders are one of the few teams in the league that can replicate that, and it’s a copy cat league. I think Chip Kelly is chomping at the bit with this offense.

On special teams, McMahon was one of the proponents of the new rules. They were 5th in return yardage and 1st in opponent return yardage so probably the most poised to exploit that on special teams.

Patriots also had some back luck in general. And improved their offensive line. They’re everyone’s darling to improve their win total. Have they done enough on the defensive side of the ball? Vrabel should lift the floor but he actually rarely has top 10 defenses (that seems weird, but it’s true). I don’t see how they stop the Raiders and then they’re turning to Maye who I just fail to get the hype around — don’t see how this guy is going to co-exist with Vrabel.

Another easy one for me:

1* - Raiders +2.5 +100

Falcons/Bucs

The Falcons are an interesting team. It’s risky to trust Penix, but I do.

Their offense was 12th ranked in EPA/Play and 5th in success rate, and that’s including some real Cousins duds.

One area of regressions is 3rd down efficiency defensively – that was 31st and there’s no reason why that won’t regress positively.

Bucs cannot defend the middle of the field, ranking 31st in EPA/play between the numbers. The defense also ranked 30th in deep passes allowed with a low coverage rate. They haven’t done enough to address this, although they did invest there in the draft and should get some better health from some guys. It should improve, but not enough and this is a great team to take advantage of that. Falcons had over 11 yards per attempt in the middle of the field against the Bucs last year and completed 82% of their passes there.

Offensively, a new coordinator and Tristan’s injury will both be huge in my opinion. Not to mention Godwin (although his production and route running could be replaced by Egbuka) and McMillan who Baker has a lot of comfort with, will be out. Hec replacing Tristan is one of the biggest discrepancies you can have – he had a 47.8 pass blocking grade via PFF. Jaylen Walker and James Pierce Jr. should improve the Falcons pass rush and help give this line fits. Bucs lack film with this personnel on Ulbrich, who I have a lot of respect for as a defensive mind. And they can run the ball with the lead and force Bucs into obvious pass situations.

I think Baker could really have a down season compared to last year, particularly early, with these injuries and scheme adjustments.

In essence, this Week 1 game pits a Falcons team potentially susceptible to more injuries this year but with room to improve defensively, against a Buccaneers team looking to rebound from significant pass coverage issues. The outcome may hinge on how effectively Michael Pennix can exploit the Buccaneers' past coverage weaknesses, the performance of the revamped offensive lines for both teams, and the ability of the Falcons' improved pass rush to pressure Baker Mayfield. Given the historical "weirdness" of their matchups and the early-season unknowns from coaching and injury impacts, expect a tightly contested battle.

This one is not as easy as the other three for me, but good enough to bet.

1* Falcons pk

Browns/Bengals

I’m writing some general thoughts here, as I’m a Browns fan and spend the majority of my free time reading about them. I’m not betting this game – I think the line is right on the money.

I do think the Browns offense has a higher floor. One thing that really doesn’t get talked about enough is how bad Dorsey is as an OC and seemingly as a leader. That scheme was dreadful to watch. Decent QB play and a big jump in scheme and playcalling back to what some of these veterans are used to should make a difference.

Also, the Browns drafted 4 guys in the top 20 PFF graded in college and six in the top 54. I feel like if the Giants or Cowboys did this we’d hear it on every show 50 times. That’s pretty incredible. And their 7th guy they drafted will probably have the most impact in Schwesinger.

BUT. Although past success in the scheme with the Browns and more time to prepare will be good for Flacco, he has been night and day as a QB when kept clean and not being kept clean. And that is starting off the year in the wrong direction in my opinion.

Dawand Jones flashed at right tackle. I don’t think he’s the answer at long-term left tackle. I hope I’m wrong. The guards are old and clearly declining. Conklin has perhaps showed the most signs of declining. Many outlets have this as a bottom 10 unit. I don’t know if it’s that extreme, but Hendrickson should have a good day. Jerome Ford is dreadful in pass blocking as well, which will not help. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sampson immediately involved more than Ford.

I do like the wide receiver room. Jeudy and Tillman should be solid on the outside and Thrash and Farrin/Njoku will be used split out inside. Weapons can execute this offense, and the QB — if he can be kept clean – has proven he can make throws out of it.

This idea of the Bengals holding the Browns to 10 points is crazy.

On the other side, defensive line is a top 3 unit, LBs have a lot of questions but Schwesinger looks like the real deal, and 2 of the 4 in the secondary are very good, 2 of the 4 are decent, and the rest is really bad. If they can get Chase or Higgins in the slot and in man against any option the Browns have in nickel, it’s going to be a long day for the Browns. I will be interested in how the Browns hide this. They’ll have to get home on the QB or Chase might have 200 yards today.

Too much variance and a spot-on line, but I’d lean the Bengals and the Over here.

I’ll be back with a Monday play, which will be the Bears in some form. I’ll try to avoid a play on the Sunday night game, but I’ll probably have a little pizza money on the Ravens – they’re about as perfectly constructed as a team as you can get in my opinion, and the Bills have several areas of regression that Josh Allen will probably just make-up for like he makes up for everything. Have a great one!

CFB Card 9/6

Sat, 06 Sep 2025 15:36:00 GMT

CFB Card 9/6

Posted Record:

NFL Sides: 2-0 +6.00

NFL MLs: 0-1 -2.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 2-0 +1.00

3* - Baylor +3 -120

3* - Oregon St -1.5

2* - UTSA -4.5

2* - Ball St +43

2* - Coastal Car -28.5

1* - Texas -37

1* - Cinci -23.5

1* - Mizzu -5.5

Not a ton of analysis a s I'm working on NFL content, but usually this early in the year it's a lot of 'technical analysis' as we don't have a footing on the 'fundamentals' (personnel, tendencies, etc.) to go as deep into the match-ups. The offseason work is a lot of regression flags and composite power rankings versus the line, etc. Nothing that deep. First 2-3 weeks are learning weeks for me from a process perspective.

So I rely on advanced box scores, misleading box scores, the offseason work, and prior week's spread to result variances for most of these plays to try to find value.

Obviously don't love how chalky this is, but oh well. Other leans included NC St, Cuse, Navy, Clemson, MTSU, and Bama.

I'll be back later today with some NFL preview stuff, including some audio, and with my picks.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Breakdown and Pick (plus some Friday CFB)

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 22:14:22 GMT

ChIefs vs. Chargers and some Friday CFB

Posted Record as of 9/5

NFL Sides: 1-0 +5.00

NFL MLs: 0-1 -2.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 0-0

Solid win on a big play last night with Cowboys +8. Thought I should have cashed the moneyline too and was pleased with Turpin’s usage on that prop that also didn’t cash. Overall, a 2.75 unit night is a solid night.

This Week 1 showdown, played in Sa Paulo, Brazil , is another amazing week 1 divisional game. I can’t stand losing money betting against the Chiefs, but unfortunately that’s what the data and matchup tells me.

1. Initial Power Rankings & Spread for a Baseline Expectation:

Ratings based spread versus composite power ratings (useful data I got from Sam Hoppen) suggests a 1.9 spread here, so a bit of value on the Chargers from that perspective since Chiefs are sitting at -3 juiced at -115

2. Kansas City Chiefs

• Offensive Gameplan & Effectiveness:

◦ They've added speed in Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown over the last few years, and Travis Kelce is reportedly "hyperfocused". Need to get both the downfield passing game going and the running game going. The offense has been anemic but for short and intermediate passing as well as Mahomes greatness.

◦ Patrick Mahomes' deep passing numbers in 2024 were concerning: he ranked 31st in passing grade on passes of 15+ yards and 42nd in turnover worthy plays on such throws. The Chargers' defense, paradoxically, was excellent at defending deep passes , ranking 11th in coverage grade and 5th in yards allowed on 15+ yard passes. This creates a direct schematic clash where the Chiefs' new ambition meets a strong counter.

In 2024, they were actually 11th in EPA/Play, 22nd in rushing yards, and converted 3rd and 4th downs really well, which Mahomes usually seems to do. Even if Simmons is solid it probably won’t be right away and so they still have a middle of the road offensive line this year.

◦ Running Game: The Chiefs were dead last in explosive run rate (7.3%) last year and operated primarily as a shotgun running team without committing extra bodies to the run game.

◦ Receiver Depth: The Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice (suspension) and Jaylen Royals (knee) in Week 1, leaving Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as the primary options.

• Defensive Performance & Outlook:

◦ Advanced Metrics (2024): The Chiefs' defense, while often lauded, performed as an average-to-slightly-above-average unit by most advanced metrics in 2024.

▪ EPA/Play: 0.01 (16th out of 32 teams)

▪ Success %: 43.57% (18th)

▪ EPA/Pass: 0.05 (15th)

▪ EPA/Rush: -0.04 (10th) – This is a strength , particularly relevant against the Chargers' desired run game.

▪ Sack %: 7.60% (10th) – Demonstrates a capable pass rush, bolstered by Chris Jones.

▪ 3rd Down Efficiency: 24th – A significant weakness .

◦ Personnel Concerns: While Chris Jones remains a dominant force, particularly on the interior against the run, the corner group outside of Trent McDuffy is young and not considered a strength.

• Luck & Regression Indicators:

◦ Overall Luck: The Chiefs had the highest overall team rankings luck in the league in 2024. This is a strong indicator for negative regression across various facets of their game. I mean–sheesh this team gets the breaks.

◦ Schedule Strength: They face a significantly more difficult schedule in 2025 (SOS Improvement Rank 23, moving from 20th to 27th in difficulty), further pointing to potential negative regression.

◦ Fumble Recovery: Their Fumble Recovery Rank was 30th (low), which could lead to positive regression in turnover fortune (recovering more fumbles).

Some good things from Bill Barnwell:

Largest gap between their actual record last year and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989. The 30 teams with the largest gap declined by more than 3 wins per year.
They went an unprecedented 10-0 in one score games last year—always regresses.
………Except with Mahomes defying similar odds a few times already and teams failing to rise to the challenge late in games

3. Los Angeles Chargers:

• Offensive Gameplan & Effectiveness:

◦ Obviously Harbaugh and Roman want to run the ball

◦ Major O-Line Weakness: This philosophy faces a massive hurdle in Week 1: Rashawn Slater, their second-highest graded tackle last year, is out for the season . Joe Alt moves to left tackle (capable), but Trey Pipkins at right tackle is a concern, especially against Chris Jones. The offensive line is "worse than it was last year" without Slater.

◦ Historical Run Game Struggles vs. Chiefs: The Chargers have a dismal history running against the Chiefs, posting a 50 rushing grade, 3.1 yards per carry, and only 0.5 yards before contact in their two games last year. Spagnuolo's defense, with dominant linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal, effectively "flattens out the front" against them.

◦ Running Backs: The new running back room includes rookie Hampton and Harris (just cleared to practice a few days ago). Hampton has good potential but I think they’ll need both in a game like this.

◦ Quarterback Pressure: If the run game fails, Justin Herbert will be forced into obvious dropback situations, which is of course a "difficult assignment" against Spagnuolo's blitzes and disguises.

◦ Receiving Corps: Their wide receiver room is mediocre at best on paper with no real threat outside of Ladd

• Defensive Performance & Outlook:

◦ Advanced Metrics (2024): The Chargers' defense performed well in 2024.

▪ EPA/Play: -0.07 (9th)

▪ Success %: 41.27% (12th)

▪ EPA/Pass: -0.07 (9th)

▪ EPA/Rush: -0.07 (8th)

◦ Deep Pass Defense Strength: They were particularly strong at preventing explosive plays , ranking 11th in coverage grade and 5th in yards allowed on 15+ yard throws. James and Gilman are awesome and versatile, and Minter really turned this around.

• Luck & Regression Indicators:

◦ Schedule Strength: The Chargers face an even more dramatic increase in schedule difficulty in 2025 (SOS Improvement Rank 28, moving from 3rd easiest to 15th most difficult). This is a significant factor for negative regression .

◦ Team Rankings Luck: Their overall team rankings luck was 5th highest in 2024, indicating some positive variance that may regress…..but not as lucky as the Chiefs!

Neither team has a new Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, or Defensive Coordinator for 2025. However, both teams are undergoing significant strategic and personnel-driven shifts that introduce variance:

• Chiefs: Attempting to transition to a more explosive, deep-passing offense while potentially revamping their run game. This is a deliberate strategic adjustment.

• Chargers: Aiming for a run-first, clock-control identity, but their ability to execute is severely challenged by a key injury and historical matchup struggles.

5. Special Teams Impact: Neither the Chiefs nor the Chargers are identified as being among the top teams poised for a significant special teams boost under the new kickoff rules, nor do they have new Special Teams Coordinators.

6. External Factors: The game location in Sa Paulo, Brazil , is of course a neutral site. As seen in other international games, field conditions can be unpredictable and play an "enormous part", adding an element of random variance to the game.

To wrap this up—I’d be a fool if I saw this many luck indicators that have a history of regressing and didn’t try to take advantage of it. Slater injury really hurts, but I’m finding a way to bet the Chargers here, and that is going to be first half to avoid potential late game heroics from Mahomes. Hopefully Hampton is as good as the hype around him. Oh and by the way, Super Bowl losers week 1 have an awful history ATS…

1 unit on Chargers 1h +1.5

Lean on the under on this game, but it’s a no play.

I’m also playing some college football tonight for those who care about that sort of thing.

Two small plays:

.5 units on Northern Illinois +16.5 -105

.5 units on Boise State -31.5

Nothing fancy: Maryland has some fade value after a misleading box score and high turnover ratio week 1.

Boise has some value after that USF game. Weird one with bad turnovers as well. In that one, USF actually looked pretty dominant, but the box score ended up being very even and I’m usually interested in a 32.5 spread-to-result variance. The offense is concerning without Jeanty to bail them out, but I think they’ll get back on track.

That’s it. I’ll have some more content on the weekend games posting over the next 24 hours.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 17:24:32 GMT

Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks: Week 1 TNF

This is a risk, but a risk worth taking.

Key Injuries include Trevon Diggs and Tyler Guyton on the Cowboys side although they were full participants and I’m expecting them to play, as well as DT depth Perrion Winfrey who did not participate. The latter is a tough blow at this stage, but less important with the Clark pick-up. For the Eagles, Landon Dickerson did not participate Monday because of a back injury, but Dickerson and Jalen Carter and Mukuba were full participants today. Of note, AJ Brown had a hamstring, but no longer shows up on the injury report. So we’re expecting the rosters to be relatively healthy on both sides.

Weather : 74 degrees, light win, and a possibility of light showers. Forecast has gotten favorable for the game where it was calling for a higher chance of heavy rain a few days ago

As I pointed out in my NFC East preview, the Cowboys have a lot of value in my opinion to bet on early and win the division.They’ll have value particularly in the beginning of the season.

Micah and Dak missed some games last year. Obviously Micah is a big loss (huge defensive spread in EPA/play with and without him). Dak’s backups were pretty awful last year.

Bill Barnwell points out the Cowboys’ red zone differential discrepancy which was very wide – 4th worst differential in 25 years. He says the worst 30 differentials evened out the following year and they improved by 3 wins! Now, some is talent and scheme, but I definitely expect that to follow suit and even out.

Pickens is a good add as plugging him in really puts pressure on defenses without a lot of CB depth—which one could argue the Eagles are one of those teams. Two guys who can beat man coverage and Pickens being a complement to one of the best receivers in the NFL. And it helps Turpin play an increased role in the offense. Interior offensive line is a strength, tackles are very much dependent on improvement at the position. Running back got quite a bit better with 3 guys in Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue that you could argue are all better than what they had last year.

I also think Kenny Clark is a sneaky good add. His best time might be behind him, but adds leadership and some run defense that the team desperately needs: scores high in stop rate and fits well in Eberflus’ scheme (think Buckner in the Colts days). Obviously doesn’t make up for losing Parsons, but it shouldn’t be dismissed like most analysts seem to be doing. He also has no guaranteed money coming in 2026 or 2027, so while it’s not a contract year, it’s a contract leverage year. This defensive tackle group is strong overall. The Cowboys have a lot of uncertainty at Edge, but also a lot of upside in my opinion, with guys that can get better with different coaching and coming back from injury. Defensive tackles are now a strength and some question marks in the middle of the Eagles offensive line. Linebackers are going to impress in my opinion. I like Sanborn and Murray in this scheme. Clark and Liufau should split time at the other spot and Eberflus makes Linebackers better. So the front 7 is solid and will undoubtedly make big jumps in stopping the run. The secondary has some question marks for sure, but with Diggs returning and better interior pass rush, they could easily make a jump.

Eagles: elite production all around as you’d expect a returning Super Bowl champion to have, ranked high in EPA/play on both sides of the ball, but middle of the road in success % offensively. Insanely efficient run game and best offensive line in the league.

Jalen Hurts turnover worthy play to interception ratio was the third highest in the league, meaning he was the third ‘luckiest’ QB in terms of turnovers. They had turnover luck in general at the 2nd best turnover differential.

Eagles have a really high injury luck as well – 2nd in adjusted games lost in 2024. This will likely regress, especially when you have key players with injury history like AJ Brown with his knee, Hurts’ concussion history, Barkley with huge usage in 2024 and several other key players with longevity flags.

They also had one of the NFL’s easiest schedules versus the 4th most difficult this year. They were 8-2 in one score games

Third down D was very good, 3rd overall, which usually regresses as well as allowing the fewest big plays. Overall, their luck metric was high at 4th overall.

The Eagles’ record-breaking health , favorable schedule , and high turnover-performing edge fueled their championship run—but these are classic indicators of potential regression. With 2025 bringing tougher opponents , question marks around key players’ durability , and Hurts’s known volatility, we should expect less margin for error and more risk of negative regression . I’m not saying this won’t be a good football team or they’ll regress to a non-playoff team, but there are a lot of things that went their way last year.

The new Dallas coordinators also present another challenge for week 1 film study. It’s always tough to project what these guys will change and you just don’t have the right tape on them. Advantage Cowboys, and I think an underrated advantage. You saw that play out in Texas/Ohio State where Texas looked clueless on Patricia’s changes.

Don’t underestimate special teams and how the changes to kickoff rules can highlight Aubrey and Turpin to change field position. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a big play out of special teams as well.

Betting favorites I think is risky this year due to inflated lines, particularly with elite teams. NFL favorites won outright 72% of the time through week 17 last year, 2nd highest ever. And that was after a decent early September for dogs. Favorites covered at a 53.9% clip which was 7th best ever and the best in 8 years. I think we’re seeing (surprisingly) pretty lopsided action on the Eagles so far. Not a ton of holes on the roster, but a big opportunity for these advanced metrics to negatively regress. They should be able to get a couple of throws over the top on the Cowboys, but I do think they’ll have less 1st and 2nd down efficiency than this line suggest.

This game is a big play for me:

5 units: Cowboys +8. Just think this is a strong value play in a lot of areas. I can tell why the line is where it is and why I think it is lacking, which is usually my best type of play.

2 units: Cowboys ML +328. If the Cowboys are going to steal one from Philly, this might be the better shot to do so even on the road with new coordinators without a lot of tape on schemes with this roster, early year regression scenarios, and improved health and talent from the Cowboys not built into the line yet.

 .25 unit: Turpin Anytime TD +650. Kick return, jet sweep, swing pass, or regular route…lots of ways to get this one and I don’t think the Eagles have a good answer with a lot of attention being on Pickens and Lamb.

NFC East Preview

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 15:15:29 GMT

Many Calling for NFC East Chalk to Prevail...Not so Fast, My Friend!

NFC East has the longest streak of back-to-back winners – no one in 20 years has repeated.

Cowboys : have a lot of value in my opinion to bet on early and win the division. I’m not usually into division futures except some pizza money parlays before the season that pay out astronomically (and you never actually hit, lol), but I think the Cowboys have value particularly in the beginning of the season.

Micah and Dak missed last year. Obviously Micah is a big loss (huge defensive EPA/play with and without him).

Bill Barnwell pointed out the Cowboys’ red zone differential discrepancy which was very wide – 4th worst differential in 25 years. He says the worst 30 differentials evened out the following year and they improved by 3 wins! Now, some is talent and scheme, but I definitely expect that to follow suit and even out since it was historically bad and they of course have Dak back. I think some forget just how good and productive Dak can be, and now he has another weapon in Pickens and what should be a better run game. I think the offense has the capabilities of being very good. Obviously guys have to make jumps at the tackle position, but Dak can make up for some of that. The interior line has strengthened. Turpin should thrive in the offense with the addition of Pickens—3 very good complements. On defense, a better defensive coordinator, creativity on the back-end, strong DTs, and an improved linebacker corps can lift the ceiling of the defense. With Turpin and Aubrey they have some upside to take advantage of the kick-off rules. Just all around I think they’re being judged harshly for the Parsons move (rightfully so) but have had a solid offseason and some things that indicate positive regression and therefore value. The glaring deficiency with this team was its really bad run defense, and they’ve done some things to improve that.

Commanders : historic 4th down conversion rate alone will revert and slow down this team offensively. I do like the Deebo addition and they obviously feel good about the WR room to release two guys they just signed. The defense is just not great and they haven’t added enough talent. I don’t know if they did enough defensively to make a jump this year. Brought in younger smart players, but I just don’t know how much to expect them to improve this year, particularly early in the season. They could make a nice run after the late bye, but I think they’ll struggle a little early on.

Their luck ranking was 3rd overall by teamrankings.com which indicates some regression this year. They still have a subpar offensive line even given their investments there and what figures to be a worse defense than last year’s 18th in EPA/Play ranking due to them having to come on the field more often when the 4th down efficiency reverses. And can Daniels repeat that amazing season with defensive adjustments AND stay healthy with that frame? A lot of question marks for this team as I see it. There are cracks in the armor late last season that were attributed to Daniels’ rib injury, but if you look at Kingsbury’s history at Texas Tech and the Cardinals, he has a history of not adjusting fast enough and/or self-scouting and has always produced poorer results late in the season after fast starts. This reminds me a lot of the Texans from 2023 to 2024.

Eagles : elite production all around as you’d expect a returning Super Bowl champion to have, ranked high in EPA/play on both sides of the ball, but middle of the road in success % offensively. Insanely efficient run game and best offensive line in the league.

Eagles have a really good injury luck as well – 2nd in adjusted games lost in 2024. This will likely regress, especially when you have key players with injury history like AJ Brown with his knee, Hurts’ concussion history, Barkley with huge usage in 2024 and several other key players with longevity flags.

They also had one of the NFL’s easiest schedules versus the 4th most difficult this year. They were 8-2 in one score games

Third down D was very good, 3rd overall, which usually regresses as well as allowing the fewest big plays. Overall, their luck metric was high at 4th overall.

Giants : I don’t like their coaching staff and I don’t like their draft very much outside of Carter.

However, they were 28th in luck rating so some of that should reverse positively, and they’ll have a top 5 defensive line for sure. QB play should be better. There could be some betting value to be had here, but I’d feel a lot better with a better coaching staff.

Giants were bottom 3 offensively in almost every metric. If it wasn’t for the Browns, they’d have collectively the worst advanced stats offensively of any other team. And then they were a bottom 6 in EPA/play defensively. I don’t think they did enough to address this. The offensive line in particular figures to be a bottom 3-5 unit. Not much else to say here – I think they’re primed to be quite bad again but bettable in certain spots when they’re facing a high negative regression opponent. This is a pretty neutral team that I likely won’t be too interested in this year.

Divsional Outlook and Summary:

Cowboys have a lot of value: Clear play on team, particularly early on. See my Eagles Cowboys game preview where I go into more match-up detail.

Eagles have a lot of negative regression value: Clear fade team

Commanders have negative regression value and luck regression as well, just not as steep as the Eagles: Slight fade team

Giants have some minor positive things going for them, but not enough for me to call them a play on team: Neutral for now

home-underdawgs

NFL Week 2

NFL Week 2 Picks

Jaguars vs. Bengals

Titans vs. Rams

Bears vs. Lions

Bills vs. Jets

Panthers vs. Cardinals

Bears Vikings Write-up and Pick

Bears Vikings on MNF ﻿

NFL Week 1 Breakdown and Picks

Week 1 NFL

Titans/Broncos

Pan thers/Jaguars

RAiders/Patriots

Falcons/Bucs

Browns/Bengals

CFB Card 9/6

CFB Card 9/6

Chiefs vs. Chargers Breakdown and Pick (plus some Friday CFB)

ChIefs vs. Chargers and some Friday CFB

Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks

Eagles vs. Cowboys Breakdown and Picks: Week 1 TNF

NFC East Preview

Many Calling for NFC East Chalk to Prevail...Not so Fast, My Friend!

Bears Vikings on MNF